Imagine a world in which the entire populations of the UK
were made of young people who had jobs but still couldn’t escape poverty. No
politician would allow that… but that’s what is happening right now to 64
million young Africans who work, but still don’t earn enough to cover basic
essentials.
Working poverty is the daily reality for more than
two-thirds of workers under 25 years of age in sub-Saharan Africa. Young people
could be an invaluable strength for an economy. If productively employed in
wage jobs, informal farms, or household micro-enterprises, they could drive
Africa’s much-needed economic transformation.
An education and employment revolution is needed to make
sure that every single young person, especially young girls in rural areas, can
productively contribute to enhancing development and the economy in their
countries.
The Challenge
An estimated 600 million new jobs must be created by 2030 in
order to keep up with the growth of the working age population around the
globe. About 780 million women and men are currently working one or more jobs
but still not being paid enough to lift themselves and their families out of
poverty.
Roughly half the Africa’s population still lives on the
equivalent of about US$2 a day. And in too many places, having a job doesn’t
guarantee the ability to escape from poverty. This slow and uneven progress
requires us to rethink and retool our economic and social policies aimed at
eradicating poverty.
By 2050, Africa’s population will double to 2.5 billion
people. It’ll also be home to 38 of the 40 youngest countries in the world. To
harness the benefits of a growing youth population, Africa will need to create
22.5 million new jobs every year. However, Africa is only creating 10 million
jobs a year, which would leave more than half of the new entrants into the
labour market unemployed.
African leaders’ must empower these young people to change
the continent with their wit and work. This would require quantity and quality
investments in education programmes that equip youth with the skills that
employers need, a focus on job creation , especially rural youth employment
strategies — ensuring that land, credit, and relevant technology are made
available to youth-led informal farmers and household enterprises, and the
fostering of youth engagement in governance.
The Opportunity
We know that when a government invests in its poorest
citizens, they in turn spend more on food and education, generating a cycle of
growth and development in the country. Healthier and better educated young
people also are more productive, helping contribute to economic growth.
With the right investments in education, health and the
creation of job opportunities, countries in sub-Saharan Africa would harness
the potential demographic dividend. The resulting returns to the economy could
be as much as $500 billion a year for the next 30 years!
Dive Deeper
The 21st century could – and should – be Africa’s century. At
the turn of the millennium, optimism about Africa’s growth was strong. However,
this was soon put to the test when the fall in commodity prices and the Arab
Spring curbed Africa’s growth rate significantly. Steadily, skepticism replaced
optimism when talking about Africa’s future.
I believe that there are fundamental reasons for renewed
optimism. This does not mean we should underestimate the challenges the
continent will continue to face, such as the very low labour productivity and
predominance of informal jobs, but this can be countered by strong political
commitment to reforms backed by appropriate resources.
Technological advances, such as the increasing penetration
of smartphones, micro-renewables – like micro-wind turbine, off-grid
photovoltaic electrification and water purification systems for households –
suggest that innovation might at least partially bypass the limitations of
infrastructure.
Moreover, the continent remains rich in natural resources
from agricultural land to metals, potential fuels of economic prosperity. Opportunities will also stem from Africa’s
growing middle-class and the ensuing boost to the domestic demand for products
and services, which is set to reach over USD 5.5 trillion by 2025.
Most importantly, the continent will be able to benefit from
its young people. By 2035, Africa will have a larger working-age population
than either India or China, meaning that every year until 2035, an additional
22.5 million young people will be ready for work. For Africa to maximise the
potential of this demographic opportunity – and reap the profits of the
so-called “demographic dividend” – these new workers need to be occupied with
productive employment.
Accelerating industrialisation will certainly facilitate job
creation, but since its growth starts from very low, jobs there will not be
enough to absorb 450 million new workers. It has been estimated that in the
coming years, only 1 in 4 newcomers will find a wage job, while the remaining 3
will end up working where their parents do: in family farms and household
enterprises in the informal sector.
The norm for young Africans is in fact underemployment and
working poverty: youth work in part-time, seasonal and low-skilled jobs. They
have what is referred to as “portfolios of work” or “mixed-livelihoods”, hidden
by official employment statistics because working poor are still considered
employed!
A comprehensive approach is needed to make sure that young
girls and boys will be able to contribute to the economic transformation of their
countries through their work. Short-term measures, such as access to land,
credits and training will improve the productivity of the underemployed working
in informal agriculture and household enterprises; while long-term investments
in industrialisation, such as infrastructure investments and better business
climate, will create wage jobs in the longer run.
Agriculture is the uncontested winner when it comes to
eradicating poverty. We know that in sub-Saharan Africa, growth in agriculture
is 11 times more effective for economic growth than growth in any other sector.
For this reason, African governments should focus their efforts on rural youth
employment with the long term objective of making their their farmers produce
more and better, while creating opportunities for off-farm enterprises to grow
– the latter comprising all those jobs in the food industry excepted for the
mere agricultural ones.
The off-farm food system is growing rapidly and will offer
significant employment opportunities, although employment created in this area
will not match those created in agriculture for at least the next 10 years. Hence,
it is key that during this transition period governments ramp up investments in
labour productivity with dedicated vocational training weaving together soft
skills and job-specific skills that can be delivered by local private sector
actors, according to the needs of the market.
Labour productivity can also be increased by improving the
access to productive inputs, especially for young women: strengthening women’s
tenure rights, improving their access to credit to finance new hires and
tailoring extension services to the needs of young mothers have proven to be
successful interventions to decrease the gender productivity gap in
agriculture.
Once agricultural productivity has increased, farmers will
be able to produce the same amount of goods in less time or with less money.
Time and money savings will slowly change their needs, making them want to buy
food and services from other farmers or local entrepreneurs.
This will translate into new market opportunities for the
myriad of informal household entrepreneurs, who are as vital to growth as
farmers, and like them need their voice and labour recognised by their
governments.
A way to help these informal entrepreneurs would be through
progressive formalisation which should start focusing on those more established
household enterprises that already resemble the formal sector, to avoid
discouraging the creation of new micro businesses.
Moreover, since new jobs in this sector are mostly new
enterprises, governments should help the middle-scale household enterprises
scale and employ, by improving the local regulatory environment and access to
credit.
Improving the business climate will in turn attract foreign
investors, who can play a key role in providing better infrastructure (water,
transport and energy) and market-driven training vital for the survival of
household enterprises.
To this end, bold industrial policies need to be implemented
to overcome economic nationalism and fragmentation, provide investors with
market information and transparent feedback mechanisms and coordinate
cross-country transport infrastructure projects with neighbouring countries to
create regional production networks. Finally, tax incentive policies must be
fully transparent and contain a zero tolerance against corruption.
The African continent is full of potential and offers a
plethora of opportunities for growth and employment. Governments have to make
sure to put this potential to full use, through smart reforms and smart
investments. If this can be managed, optimism about Africa’s future will not
only be warranted, but realistic.
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