My climate refugee crisis solutions

Climate migration is devastating people’s lives. Imagine losing your home or livelihood due to a flood. Going hungry because of a failed harvest or drought. Or being forced to flee your village due to desertification, rising sea levels or a lack of clean drinking water. This is the reality for millions and millions of climate refugees. In 2024, over 120 million people were forcibly displaced by weather-related events – such as floods, storms, wildfires and droughts. With rising temperatures, large swathes of the planet could become uninhabitable for humans, not only as a result of heat stress, but sea level rise and other weather events. Today, over 70% of refugees are from climate vulnerable countries, drawing a link between the climate and refugee crises. By 2050, under current trends, one-tenth of the global population will be displaced as a result of natural disasters and climate change. Small-island states, in particular, are on the front lines, and could disappear by 2050, including the Maldives and other islands across the south Pacific and Caribbean. For starters, climate refugees are persons forced to leave their homes to permanently or temporarily relocate to another country, as the result of sudden or gradual environmental disruption. If persons do not move across country boundaries, they would not be counted. Climatic change as a driver of social regression. Whilst climate change and natural disasters may directly impact on the climate refugee crisis, in creating increasing areas of uninhabitable land, there will also be indirect drivers. Climatic changes are driving a resource crisis, with increasing water and food insecurity. In the five years to 2024, food insecurity more than doubled to affect 345 million people, primarily the world’s poorest, and particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, south and southeast Asia. Should we see global average temperatures rise by more than 2⁰C above pre-industrial levels, it will become very difficult for crops to adapt with farming becoming increasingly expensive (or inaccessible) for many. Climate change will continue to exacerbate pre-existing disparities in access to clean water as a result of changing water cycles, severe droughts and floods. To 2030 and beyond, extreme weather will push millions more into poverty, by destroying homes and essential resources. In the poorest economies, significant proportions of the population depend on sectors particularly vulnerable to climate change, including agriculture, forestry and fisheries; vulnerability would be exacerbated by the inability to access insurance protection to buffer climate-related physical impacts. This will be a natural driver of peoples and communities relocating to find economic opportunities in less environmentally volatile surrounds.​ In fleeing environmental disaster, climate refugees, as with other refugees, may become vulnerable to modern slavery. With 50 million people already living in modern slavery today, climate change may drive ever more people into finding new opportunities further afield, which in the worst case, may result in illegal and forced labour. In Bangladesh, India and Ghana, climate induced environmental degradation in recent years has resulted in economic uncertainty and food insecurity for some, particularly the poorest, women and children, with evidence some have been targeted by human traffickers. Related climate conflicts are also on the rise. With climate change, we also expect a rise in the pre-conditions for violent conflict, threatening food insecurity and essential resources (including access to clean water), leading to the emergence of non-state disputes and militant groups, as well as cross-border disputes amongst states for finite resources (e.g. as they compete for their share of water resources). Today, we can already see examples of climate change and natural disasters leading to conflict and armament. For example, ongoing conflicts in the Sahel have been associated with climate change, in driving increasing resource scarcity and impacting on populations predisposition for conflict. On the Bangladesh-India border, there are reports India’s Border Security Force has used lethal force against Bangladesh civilians seeking to immigrate across the border, to flee flooding. As more areas of the Earth become uninhabitable, this will mean more immigration into cooler climates, including in the UK and Europe. Other nations have used climatic change as an opportunity to militarise, for example, the US and Russia militarising the increasingly ice-free Arctic. As climatic zones safe for humans shrink, the likelihood is the closer interaction amongst peoples and nations, potentially fuelling further conflict. Climate conflicts are wars or conflicts which are provoked by climate change, including as a result of weather pattern changes and natural disasters, and associated impacts. How can we help? The scale and trajectory of climate-induced migration means that policymakers cannot address one crisis at a time, in an ex-post fashion. Rather, we need bold, transformative, and foresighted action on two critical fronts. First and foremost, fulfilling the global responsibility to cut greenhouse gas emissions is critical to reducing the scale and reach of climate impacts on water availability, crop and ecosystem productivity, sea-level rise and storm surges, and labor productivity—all of which can trigger migration decision-making. Second, policymakers can usher the economies of affected countries towards green and resilient pathways by pursuing far-sighted action to avert distress-driven migration and harness climate-induced migration to foster economic and demographic transitions. Such policies require investments in human capital to support the next generation in productive and sustainable climate-smart jobs. Additionally, Given the rising climate refugee crisis, we will all need to engage, as author's , investors and individuals. This is admittedly a difficult area to respond to, as an author. In part, due to data availability which is few and far between (versus emissions data). But this is starting to improve, including as a result of the work of organisations seeking to understand how portfolio governments are engaging with and treating refugee communities, or otherwise, developing taxonomies to identify investments with positive refugee impact. There are also some related investment opportunities which have been developed. Some initial areas for investors to consider in your portfolios, today, include: Contributing to real-world decarbonisation, via strategy design and stewardship processes, to reduce the scale of natural disasters and weather pattern shifts, to help alleviate the future incidence of climate refugees; Understanding how your asset managers are engaging with the social aspects of physical risks, within their investment due diligence and risk management processes; and, Engaging with corporates to identify/prevent modern slavery violations in their supply chains. This could include understanding human rights violations under the United Nations Global Compact, particularly those linked to environmental change and displaced peoples. There is a long way to go to better understand the various social facets of climate change, including and beyond the rising loss of high carbon jobs, as we decarbonise the global economy. We will need to respond, via self-education, and dialogue with companies, investors and countries on the same.